The XL Trader
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Trading Strategies
TQQQ Ascend Strategy
Highlights
An Alternative Strategy for the Active Trader
Easy to Trade - Minimum time commitment
Only One Entry per day - some days none
TQQQ Long-Only trading
No positions held overnight - no overnight risk
65% Winning Trades*
Less than 9% drawdowns*
Total control...you decide if you trade
Affordable fees
*Backtested data results from inception to date
Why I Invented TQQQ Ascend
After the drawdowns of the Dot-Com bubble in the early 2000's and the 2008 Great Recession. During the Dot-Com downturn the Nasdaq Composite lost nearly 80% of its value. During the Great Recession the S&P 500 lost 57% of its value. Ouch!!I wanted to build a strategy that would outperform the Nasdaq-100, S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This strategy utilizes the leveraged TQQQ ETF the way it was intended...limited risk exposure and calculated statistical win probabilities.This strategy should be used as part of a larger portfolio an investor manages. This helps diversify the portfolio to minimize risk.
Key Attributes
Unlike active Day Trading this strategy requires minimum time on your part each day
A statistically optimized trading plan that eliminates your guesswork
You will enter only one trade order per day. Some days the Trade Order entry point is not reached.
Because you manage your own account....you have complete control over your funds
If your Trade Order opens a position, you will close that trade and be in cash at the end of the day
Obviously, you can elect not to trade on a given day. (Business Travel, Vacation, Illness, etc.)
How It Works
While it took a while to develop and refine, the result is a strategy that optimizes on the following key market factors:
The strategy determines the major bias relative to the current market at a "Strategic" level.
Within the bias of the market trending up or down, the strategy determines the "Tactical" direction. Is it making a short-term move up or short-term move down in the overall bias?
What is the relative volatility of the recent daily price action.
Once a position is taken, the model then calculates two attributes to optimize returns...the Take-Profit target and the Stop-Loss target.The Take-Profit target is a price point above the entry point that optimizes returns and probability the trade will close with a Win.The Stop-Loss target is a price point below the entry point that limits the potential loss and aids the overall strategy return performance. Currently the strategy adjusts parameters to target a maximum loss for a given day to 1.5%
What is TQQQ?
The strategy trades TQQQ, a 3X leveraged ETF created by ProShares out of Bethesda, Maryland.
TQQQ reflects the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) index, but is leveraged. For example, if the NDX price moves up 1%, TQQQ increases 3%. Likewise if the NDX price moves down 1%, TQQQ decreases 3%.
TQQQ is one of the most traded ETFs on the market. It currently averages over 78 Million shares traded daily.
TQQQ is a Long-Only ETF...it is designed to be traded when NDX is moving up.
Backtested Results
What makes this strategy so valuable?
First, you know everyday what your entry and exit point is for that day.
You will calculate the entry points at the market open, enter the trade, and not have to babysit the order every minute.
The Daily Win Percentage (percentage winning trades to losing trades) is over 65% (Win Trades to Losing Trades)
The Monthly Win Percentage is over 79% (Winning Months to Losing Months)
The Quarterly Win Percentage is over 93% (Winning Quarters to Losing Quarters)
Also, this strategy limits the Maximum Daily Loss to 1.5%.
By limiting the losses, our backtested maximum Drawdown% is less than 10% (Deepest Drawdown% from highest close to lowest close)
The average monthly return is over 2.7%
| Title | Author | Year | ISBN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neuromancer | William Gibson | 1984 | 0-441-56956-0 |
| Snow Crash | Neal Stephenson | 1992 | 0-553-08853-X |
| Software | Rudy Rucker | 1982 | 0-441-77408-3 |
Historical Data
Accessing data in Excel is a terrific way to augment your personal understanding of indices, stocks and ETFs.We provide a tool for you to capture daily data and also key indicators already calculated in ExcelOnce in Excel format, you can determine when the Index, Stock or ETF rises above or falls below indicators. This provides the basis for analyzing data on a daily basisHistorical data template consists of the following information:
Data for nearly every index, stock and ETF
Data includes Date, Open, High, Low, Close and Volume
We also provide calculated columns for the following popular indicators:
Moving Average (MA)
Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
Forward Weighted Moving Average (FWMA)
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
Tools
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One-on-One
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